Florida Home Prices CRASHED by 50% the last time this happened…
Home Values across Florida are up a massive 28% YoY in early 2022 according to data from Zillow. Meanwhile, homes for sale are at an all-time low while people are moving to Florida at near-record numbers.
Is this another Florida Housing Bubble? And will a Housing Crash soon follow? Maybe.
The last time Florida’s Real Estate Market experienced anything like this was in the mid-2000s. Migration peaked in 2005 while home price growth surged in 2006. And then it all came crumbling down in the one of the worst Housing Crashes in US History.
Zillow Home Value Data:
Realtor.com Inventory Data:
Realtor.com External Demand:
Be careful buying real estate in Southwest Florida, particularly metros like Sarasota, Fort Myers/Cape Coral, Punta Gorda, and Naples. These areas have 1) the biggest surge in home building in America and 2) rely heavily on external home buyer demand. This is a formula that can work for a Housing Market in an upward migration cycle. But if fewer people begin moving to Florida, then t. could be major problems in these cities.
For instance, single-family permits in Cape Coral are up 61% YoY according to the US Census Bureau. Meanwhile, only 21% of homebuyer search interest comes from within the metro according to Realtor.com. Sarasota is similar. Home permitting is up 43% YoY while only 27% of homebuyer search comes locally.
But Miami’s Housing Market is at the other end of the spectrum. The Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach area has only experienced a 4% increase in single-family permitting from 2020 to 2021. meanwhile, nearly 60% of homebuyer search comes from within the metro.
I believe that this makes Miami’s Housing Market more stable, since t.’s less speculation occurring from homebuilders and external buyers.
Of course – if you’re a Florida homebuyer or real estate investor you’ll need to make up your own mind about w. the best place to buy is!
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