Engelhardt examined data on housing, demographics, and mortality to determine what impact the aging and eventual death of homeowners aged 50 and older will have to the housing market. What he found was that only a modest excess of supply will come from baby boomers and that this will lead to “no measurable decline in home prices.”
According to the study, housing supply from baby boomers will only lead to an excess of around a quarter-million units annually through 2032, with most of the adjustment to the excess inventory coming from a reduction in housing starts and completions, alongside some leeway in the rental market.
“RIHA’s study skillfully uses multiple data sources to get a detailed picture of America’s aging population and its effect on the housing market,” said Edward Seiler, RIHA executive director and MBA associate vice president, housing economics. “The impact from baby boomers exiting their homes is not insignificant but will happen over a few decades without significantly disrupting the housing market.”